deficits, political instability, i think argentina and venezuela are headed to a chaotic political environment that is going to affect brazil and chile. as a geopolitical matter, the united states and it's relationships with south america are at risk. the oil problem is a big one. if venezuela should really go essentially belly up, that is going to--that could raise oil prices for a while to $5 to $10 a barrel. >> first of all, brazil one of the countries we've talked about for several years now as being on an economic growth terror, that's not the case. it's growth has slowed and it will grow a little less or about the same as the united states in 2014. it will start to have an impact on the world. there is a real domino affect if latin america becomes a problem. what is the effect to the rest of us? >> it's probably pretty contained. i think argentina, the reason why we're concerned about brazil is we think argentina is really going to go down. in its economy, and in its politics. and argentina buys a lot from brazil and chile, so both of those countries are going to suffer in their economy.